SuperData's call: 1.9 million PlayStation VR units in year one

With Sony’s PlayStation VR price still unannounced, the analysts at SuperData put numbers on the coming VR land rush — and their forecast was more sober than the hype.

The digital-entertainment research firm predicted Sony’s headset would ship 1.9 million units in 2016, with a starting price between $400 and $600 — a range that made clear the jump into console VR wouldn’t be cheap.

SuperData’s earlier work framed the whole market: the technology would be profitable before 2017, but the first-generation user base wouldn’t come primarily from Oculus or PlayStation — it would come from cheap smartphone-based viewers, the Trojan horse that familiarized millions with VR before they committed to the expensive gear.

The pattern, the report argued, would see consumers cut their teeth on phone VR before trading up. Tellingly, even hardcore gamers — a demographic famous for dedication — reported willingness to spend only around $300 on VR hardware, which put pressure on every headset maker to justify the premium.

The forecasts by platform told the story: Google Cardboard-class devices could move more than 27 million units, while the combined PC high end — Oculus Rift and HTC Vive — topped out around 6.6 million.

One more datapoint: 829 VR games were in production at the time, from major developers and indies alike.

The clearest signal of demand, though, needed no analyst: Oculus Rift opened pre-orders January 6 and its first batch sold out in 15 minutes at €699. Whatever the surveys said, users were serious. (History’s verdict: SuperData’s PSVR number was almost exactly right — Sony moved roughly that many units in year one, and you can still join them via the PlayStation VR shelf.)

More information | SuperData